Begin The Wembanyama Era
The non-sports fans may want to skip this one. Saturday night was something of a big night in the world of the National Basketball Association. French teenaged wunderkind Victor Wembanyama made his debut with the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Summer League (which is a sort of exhibition season held during the summer with teams made up primarily of rookies and young free agents trying to find their way onto teams).
Wembanyama is a massively hyped prospect, and I didn’t want the occasion to pass without notice – so I dusted off my gimmick from before the NBA playoffs and spent the evening exchanging emails with Hayden, my longtime friend and huge NBA fan. Below are the emails we sent back-and-forth throughout the night as the game aired on ESPN. Clarifying notes from me and Hayden will be in italics throughout the emails to try and explain (as much as it’s possible to explain) what we are talking about. Without further ado, welcome Victor!
From Joel to Hayden
Alright buddy, after our lengthy NBA playoff analysis that was obviously 100-percent accurate which people should take my word for and not go back and fact check, what better time to dust off the basketball conversation than the Summer League debut of the French prodigy Victor Wembanyama (henceforth VW because I'm too lazy to type that every time).
For the uninitiated, a quick bit of background. VW was the overall number one pick in the recent NBA draft, being selected by the San Antonio Spurs. He enters the league as arguably the most hyped and anticipated rookie since LeBron James 20 years ago. He's a 7' 4" French 19-year old who more than held his own playing professionally in France this past year. He has the perimeter skills of a guard in the body of a giant human, and the league has been breathlessly awaiting his arrival.
We have known each other and followed basketball for many years, with particular interest in the NBA draft and predicting the outcomes for players -- and I think this is the most excited I have ever seen you about a new player coming into the league.
So let's start there...what in particular has you so jacked about VW?
From Hayden to Joel
First off, I'm not going to sanction referring to him as "VW." Maybe "Vic," maybe "Wemby," but not "VW." Although his initials do present some marketing and nickname possibilities I hadn't thought of previously, but none of the VW models that immediately come to mind are particularly apt -- The Bug, The Bus...none of them really fit. Maybe the car manufacturer takes the first step in that regard, and we're all driving electric Volkswagen Wembies by the time his rookie contract is up.
The reason I'm so excited for him is fairly straightforward: We've never seen anything like him. There are relatively few guys in league history who have been his height, period, but none of them have been able to handle the ball and move the way he does. Defensively, with an eight-foot wingspan and his mobility and athleticism, he is immediately going to be a game-changer -- he will challenge shots from spots on the floor and angles that we've never contemplated, let alone witnessed.
On top of all of that, he seems to have the right mindset in terms of wanting to be great and understanding the work he needs to do both on and off the court to accomplish that. And he seems ready for the pressure he's going to face. His French club team came to Vegas in October and played a couple of games against the G-League Ignite. Scoot Henderson put on a show in the first half of the first game and Ignite were up like 15 in the first half and the whole building was rooting for them. But instead of shrinking from the moment, Wembanyama had a monster second half, nearly bringing his team back to win. And he was equally impressive in the second matchup, which his team won. The ability to shine in those types of moments is part of what set LeBron apart so quickly, and I think we'll see it in Wembanyama, too.
Am I wrong? I can't imagine liking basketball and not being excited about this kid.
From Joel to Hayden
I AM LOOKING LIVE (well at the moment I'm looking live at the conclusion of the Portland/Houston game). My walk of Sunny concluded in time to catch the professional debut of young Vic. And yes, I will acquiesce to your wishes and put VW away and go with Wemby or Vic.
To answer your question, I'm absolutely excited to see what this freakish French gentleman can do. I think I'm just trying to remain cautious and taking more of a wait-and-see approach. But as you said, we've essentially never seen anyone like this before, and part of the great fun of sports is seeing new stuff. Wemby is the ultimate example of new stuff.
For readers, my friend and I will be commenting along as things happen in his debut tonight, and I will do my best to include various clips within the post so those not watching the game can understand what we are talking about.
So we are both excited. What are your realistic, and perhaps unrealistic expectations for this season? The Spurs won 22 games last season, how big of an impact do you see him making as a teenaged rookie? Lets throw some completely reckless predictions out there!
From Hayden to Joel
I expect the Spurs to take it somewhat slow with him, if for no other reason than I think there are some concerns about his durability given the history of foot injuries for seven-foot-plus guys in the league. Personally, I think he looks more fragile than he actually is, but they'll be cautious with him. San Antonio is developing a young core and isn't in any rush to win immediately. I think they'll be better than 22 wins, and while Wembanyama will play a part in that, he won't be the only reason -- assuming good health for guys like Devin Vassell and Malakhi Branham, there's a lot of reason to expect improvement. I think 35 wins is a possibility.
I'm not expecting Wembanyama to dominate right away, but he's the rare talent who will be must-watch TV even if he doesn't dominate because every night out there's going to be something that makes your jaw drop.
I'll leave the reckless predictions to you, I guess. Got any guesses as to his season averages?
From Hayden to Joel
Two and a half minutes in, he's 0-for-3, including a missed dunk, and I'm already sold.
From Hayden to Joel
Well, I was sold already, but you get what I mean. Summer league for rookies isn't about making shots, it's about getting good ones, and this is all coming very easy to him.
At this point in the game, Wembanyama had missed a driving runner and a jumper in addition to the dunk, but he had blocked at least one shot on the other hand and had just dished out an assist on a fast break:
From Joel to Hayden
Spoken like a true Kool-Aid drinker -- the guy blew a dunk!
I kid, mostly. He does look very smooth, and though I can already tell how annoying this broadcast is going to be, he's surprising with some of the passing and court awareness he's showing. It's always interesting to see how players with this much attention deal with being the focus within a team concept. Basketball can be a very individual game, but it's obviously also a team endeavor so seeing how he fits in is interesting.
A 13-win improvement seems pretty reckless yourself, but your point is well taken about their other guys also improving. Is 18 points, 9 boards and 2 blocks per game too reckless for you?
From Hayden to Joel
They were actively tanking last year, and they had a bunch of injuries. I'm not saying I'd take over 34 1/2 wins for them next year, just that I think 35 is possible.
Two blocks per game seems low. Walker Kessler averaged 2.3 in 23 minutes per game last year and while I don't want to underrate Kessler's talent, Wembanyama's a few inches taller and has about eight inches of wingspan on Kessler. He's gonna block a lot of shots. The other numbers certainly look possible, although I think he could end up with closer to something like 12 rebounds a game because he's going to end up tipping a lot of missed shots back at the basket, which usually are given as offensive boards.
From Joel to Hayden
Okay, we are one quarter into the game, time for me to throw a little cold water on things. I am a noted pessimist, so allow me to try and be a big downer.
He clearly moves incredibly well for a guy who is almost 7'4" but do you feel like he's an elite athlete? His handle is really good, but he doesn't seem to be going by guys -- I wonder if teams will just put strong wings on him and I wonder what he will be able to do offensively. I'm not really actually concerned about his strength, I feel like that stuff comes for all NBA players. Finally, you talk about him doing something to make your jaw drop every game, which I think is true. I don't necessarily know how to explain it, but I wonder if my slightly more tepid enthusiasm is wondering whether he's going to be more side show than impactful player. The stuff we've never seen is great, but are you confident that will eventually translate into consistent production?
Again, I don't know if I really believe any of this, just trying to find potential flaws in the armor.
From Hayden to Joel
I'm participating in this portion of the discussion against my better judgment. Shame on you for trying to spoil Wembanyama Day!
He's the most athletic 7'4" guy I've ever seen, so I'm not really sure what your concern is there. When you're that tall, you don't need to be incredibly quick or jump out of the gym, although again, I submit that he does both of those things better than anyone we've ever seen at his height. Certainly he isn't as quick as, say, Giannis, but he's nearly half-a-foot taller and already a better shooter. He's gonna get pushed around a little bit, but at his height and with his shooting touch, he'll be able to get a shot off whenever he wants. He has looked a little timid tonight after the first few minutes, but the aggressiveness will come and when it does and he gets a little stronger, he's going to be as consistent as anyone in terms of scoring, even if he doesn't put up huge numbers in the points column.
From Joel to Hayden
You didn't answer/address my other concerns! I think you're probably right, I just think it will be interesting to see as he adjusts to the NBA and teams that are better equipped to stop him. Within your answer is the stuff we don't know, like how hard he's going to work at getting better. He clearly has any physical tool a great NBA player will need, but will he continue to work and improve or will he be satisfied being that side show I mentioned before. Or even somewhere in between where he just settles in as a good but not great player.
I think someone with his gifts will almost certainly become a force (barring injury) I'm just trying to find different things to talk about.
And speaking of reckless, just for fun, I placed a bet on him being the NBA Defensive Player of the Year next season. He probably won't play enough to win, but it's time for some unbridled optimism, so there you go.
From Hayden to Joel
I haven't heard anyone voice any concerns about his work ethic. To the contrary, everyone raves about his mindset. And if you were going to handpick an organization into which you'd drop a generational talent to develop, you'd pick the Popovich Spurs. It's a perfect match.
His conditioning seemed to be an issue in the first half and that may linger a bit in his rookie season. Revisiting an earlier discussion, I'm not sure he'll play enough minutes to get to 18 points per game. And I agree that it probably won't be enough to win DPOY, although you can envision a situation where he would get some votes. What price did you get?
From Joel to Hayden
+3,500. As you said, almost certainly a foolish bet, but I was trying to get in the spirit of the excitement.
From Hayden to Joel
Kai Jones!
From Joel to Hayden
Well said.
I know the Spurs are a big family watch in your house, but what percentage of Vic's games do you anticipate yourself watching this year?
From Hayden to Joel
My plan is to watch all of them. Realistically, though, that probably won't happen -- I probably watch between 80-85% of Celtics games during a season, so it's probably optimistic to anticipate watching more Spurs games than that. I did watch basically every game of Jonny Flynn's rookie year, but I had a lot less responsibility back then. Let's say 3/4 of his games. What about you? You're a long-time League Pass warrior as well, but the Spurs play the majority of their games outside of your time zone.
From Joel to Hayden
I do enjoy my time on League Pass, but I rarely check out full games. Given the time zone constraints I would guess I will try to check in on our friend maybe 30-40 games this year, but probably in small doses. My responsibilities are also a thing with which I must contend, but I will definitely want to keep tabs on this fellow throughout the year.
Given my new hope that he wins DPOY I am curious how the Spurs will deploy him defensively. Someone with his length and size you would expect they might try to put him on a team's weakest offensive player so he can roam about and be a destructive force, particularly since he doesn't have the bulk to match up against a center.
Hayden’s response after the fact: I agree that the Spurs will probably try to hide him a little bit on defense to protect him from foul trouble and to maximize his ability to help. It will also be interesting to see how teams attack him defensively – he is so long that you probably don’t want to put him in the pick and roll the way you would some other young centers who lack NBA strength. (I think we’ll see OKC’s Chet Holmgren in quite a few of those this season, for example.) On the other hand, you can’t let him just play free safety, because that will allow him to be maximally disruptive protecting the rim. Probably the best way to attack him is bring him into a screen and then have the screener roll and try to pin him in the post, but that isn’t a strong suit of too many players these days, particularly non-centers.
From Hayden to Joel
Julian Champagnie!
From Hayden to Joel
I think Vic just tried a half-hearted "Eclipse" contest popularized by Luke Kornet this season.
From Joel to Hayden
I will admit I've spent most of the game trying to figure out if "Champagnie" was one name or two names. I thought maybe it was a guy named Sham Penny. Apparently it is not.
From Hayden to Joel
Yikes.
From Hayden to Joel
There we go!
From Hayden to Joel
Put him in the Hall of Fame!
From Joel to Hayden
A lot of 2-13 shooters in the Hall of Fame? Note, Vic finished the game shooting 2-of-13 from the field, a mark that is certainly less than desirable efficiency.
From Hayden to Joel
Probably. They let everyone in.
Certainly, it was an underwhelming offensive debut. He really struggled when he tried backing his defender down, and I think that part of his game will need to be developed over a couple of years, as he gets stronger. It's not going to be a traditional post-up game -- burying your defender on your hip deep in the post and getting an entry pass is not part of many NBA players' repertoires these days. But backing down a smaller defender from the wing is an important skill for an NBA scorer, so he'll need to develop it. In the meantime, he looked really good facing up and going to the basket the few times he did it, and while he struggled to finish through contact, that's the kind of thing players typically adjust to pretty quickly. His shot was inconsistent all year in France, and his touch was largely absent tonight, but the mechanics are there. But it seems pretty clear he's going to be an immediate difference-maker on the defensive end.
From Joel to Hayden
I will admit, I drifted in and out of sleep as the game moved towards its conclusion. But allow me to summarize our conversation this evening: you are an unapologetic fanboy who is ignoring VW's (yeah I did it) obvious flaws and is about a week away from donning a beret and smoking skinny cigarettes. Meanwhile I am a clear-eyed realist who is excited by the unique nature of his game but is not prepared to secure his place as an elite professional.
I kid, of course. I'm not sure why I took it upon myself to provoke you this evening, but I am also really excited about what we are seeing, mostly because we have no idea what we are seeing. This kid's potential is basically something we've never seen. There is a non-zero chance he develops into an unguardable offensive force who also doubles as the most impactful defender in the league. That's stunning.
I was excited to watch him tonight, but I don't think it's that surprising he struggled a bit in his debut. Given his current weaknesses, I think he's actually a player better suited to play with legit NBA players than in the sort of glorified chaos and pickup game style of Summer League.
We likely will not send each other 20 emails every time he takes the court during the summer (or during the season) but given what he might become, I thought it merited historical documentation. And it gave me the chance to irritate you, which is always fun.